Quote of the Day
"I think of the brands we used to love," said Andy Hunder, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, in Davos. "Some of the biggest American brands used to be on the shelves of the supermarkets. Today, probably the most loved American brands are, like, Patriot missiles."
Today's Newsletter Contents
Reporter's Notepad
- URN's observations from Davos: A burst of optimism, a free newsletter, and not-very-actionable investment tips
Just The Facts:
- Trump suspends US foreign development aid for 90 days pending assessment
- Zelensky congratulates Trump, sees opportunity for 'just peace'
- UK and Ukraine launch plan to track stolen grain from occupied territories
- 61% of AmCham member companies in Ukraine anticipate 2025 ceasefire, survey shows
- Ukraine and France discuss joint production of air defense systems and interceptors
Here's What They Think:
- NYT: Ukraine's sovereignty depends on strong support from Trump admin
- The Hill: Ukraine should be held accountable for corruption in foreign aid spending
- EDASI: Russia must be defeated in Ukraine for World War III to be avoided
Sober Second Thought:
- Scrapping coal in Ukraine by 2035 would boost system costs by 'politically acceptable' 12.5%, study finds
Dear readers,
We're opening up the URN Daily Premium newsletter to free subscribers for the remainder of this week as we cover events in Davos and the expected flurry of news in the first week of Donald Trump's return to the White House.
So, welcome! It's set to be an eventful week.
Before you scroll down for the straight news in Just the Facts, here's a sampling of the first day of the events at Ukraine House Davos.
Ukraine House Davos, the Ukraine-focused pavilion run alongside the annual World Economic Forum events in Davos, kicked off its 2025 edition on Monday evening with a burst of optimism.
The first panel of the week, which coincided with the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, looked at the future of Ukraine-US relations, peace talks, economic opportunity in Ukraine, and EU accession.
And it was most notable for its bright tone. Here are some of the highlights:
Heightened Optimism
-- Panel moderator Daniel Runde, senior vice president of the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS):
"My hope is that Ukraine joins (the EU) within five years, by Jan 20, 2029, at the end of Donald Trump's second term."
Throughout the one-hour session, Runde repeatedly emphasized the breadth and depth of the opportunity the country represents. In fact, the word "opportunity" was said 27 times, or almost once every two minutes.
"Ukraine is an enormous business opportunity for the world. It's got $26 trillion of minerals. The economy is 'hands, brains and grains.' Hands is manufacturing. Brains is tech, including AI, and grains. I'd also probably add a fourth one in drones."
-- Kurt Volker, who served as US Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations from 2017 to 2019, and as US Ambassador to NATO from 2008-2009:
"I'm optimistic that 2025 will be a time when there is a ceasefire. I think (Trump) comes into office with an absolute determination to end the war in Ukraine."
-- Rear Admiral (ret.) Michael Hewitt, co-founder and CEO of nuclear technology company IP3.
"I'm involved with critical minerals of Ukraine, which everybody knows is going to become, and already is, the oil of Saudi Arabia, in terms of global influence."
-- Ulyana Khromyak, executive director of Ukraine House Davos:
"The expected $1 trillion rebuilding effort represents the most significant business opportunity for the past 75 years."
Actionable investment tips?
When the moderator asked the panelists for investment insights, one tip was more, well, specific than others:
Moderator: "What's the biggest opportunity in the next one to three years in Ukraine?"
AmCham President Andy Hunder: "... the people ..."
Razom CEO Dora Chomiak: "... the people ..."
Hewitt: "Small modular reactors to power AI and hyperscale data. The home of AI is Ukraine, and nuclear power is associated with AI and hyper scale. The perfect marriage is in Ukraine."
Meeting Notes
Paid subscribers can view a bullet-point summary of the first Ukraine House Davos event, along with a complete summary and other notes, in the The Meetings section of the Ukraine Rebuild Newswire website, here.
In fact, paid subscribers can view transcripts, summaries and other details of conferences, webinars and seminars focused on the reconstruction of Ukraine as far back as March of last year.
And, while you're there, take a look at our Calendar of Events for an idea of the variety of events we're covering this week, and in the future, most of which will be saved for posterity and searchable as Meeting Notes.
Consider becoming a paid subscriber. Then subscribe. Visit this page for details.
Now, on to the news ...
Trump suspends US foreign development aid for 90 days pending assessment
US President Donald Trump on Monday signed an executive order suspending foreign development aid from the United States, a major donor to Ukraine, for a period of 90 days pending an assessment of consistency with the country's foreign policy.
"All department and agency heads with responsibility for United States foreign development assistance programs shall immediately pause new obligations and disbursements of development assistance funds to foreign countries and implementing non-governmental organizations, international organizations, and contractors," reads the executive order, which did not specifically mention Ukraine.
The order noted that development assistance funding may be resumed for a program prior to the 90-day review period if a review is conducted, and the Secretary of State, in consultation with the director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), decides to continue the program.
In addition, any other new foreign assistance programs and obligations must be approved by the Secretary of State, in consultation with the director of OMB.
The scope of the order was not immediately clear, nor were the countries, non-governmental organizations, and international organizations that may be affected by the move.
It was also not clear how the executive order would affect US assistance to Ukraine, of which Trump has been largely critical.
Zelensky congratulates Trump, sees opportunity for 'just peace'
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday congratulated US President Donald Trump on his inauguration, saying it presented an opportunity for a "just peace" in Ukraine.
"President Trump is always decisive, and the peace through strength policy he announced provides an opportunity to strengthen American leadership and achieve a long-term and just peace, which is the top priority," Zelensky said.
Zelensky wrote in a post on X that he looks forward to "active and mutually beneficial cooperation."
"We are stronger together, and we can provide greater security, stability, and economic growth to the world and our two nations," Zelensky noted.
In his nightly address to the nation later on Monday, Zelensky called Trump a "strong person," adding Ukrainians are ready to work with Americans to achieve "true peace."
"This is an opportunity that must be seized," Zelensky said.
Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on the first day of his second presidency, Trump reiterated he wanted to end the war in Ukraine soon.
"Zelensky told me he wants to make a deal, I don't know if Putin does ... He might not. I think he should make a deal. I think he's destroying Russia by not making a deal," Trump said.
UK and Ukraine launch plan to track stolen grain from occupied territories
The UK has agreed with Ukraine to launch a Grain Verification Scheme to track grain stolen from occupied areas.
The plan — which aims to strengthen the food security of Ukraine — will use cutting-edge science to determine where the grain has been grown and harvested.
The scheme was developed after Ukraine asked G7 nations for help in tracking grain stolen from Russian-occupied territories and sold internationally, the UK government said in a press release.
"The Grain Verification Scheme will support Ukraine’s essential food supply and helps guarantee their security in the face of Russian aggression," said UK Minister for Food Security and Rural Affairs Daniel Zeichner.
"Using the latest science, we can track grain to its source-identifying stolen grain to help Ukraine take back what’s theirs," Zeichner added.
The agreement is part of a 100-year partnership between both countries, which was announced last week. The agreement includes cooperation in defense, economy, education, science, technology, and other areas.
Russia has voiced concerns about the 100-year partnership between the UK and Ukraine, citing potential violations with regard to supporting military infrastructure, Reuters reported.
"Given that Britain is a NATO country, the advancement of its military infrastructure towards our borders is certainly a rather worrying element," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. "In any case, it will be necessary to further analyze what will happen."
61% of AmCham member companies in Ukraine anticipate 2025 ceasefire, survey shows
Some 61% of American Chamber (AmCham) member companies in Ukraine believe a ceasefire in 2025 is likely, and 81% expect a ceasefire to positively impact business activity, signaling cautious optimism amidst wartime challenges.
Over 40% of respondents expect an increase in business and economic activity in 2025 in comparison to last year, while almost half expect stability, and 12% foresee a potential decline, AmCham said in a press release.
AmCham's survey included 145 CEOs and top managers from member companies representing a wide range of industries. Two-thirds of survey respondents were CEOs.
Out of the respondents, 77% expect continued US support to Ukraine at the current level or expect an increase, while the remaining 23% predict a decrease.
53% of participants expect sales to grow in 2025 in comparison to 2024, with the majority projecting an increase of up to 15%. Meanwhile, 37% expect sales to remain the same and 10% expect a decline.
When comparing sales expectations to pre-war levels, 39% foresee growth in 2025, while 34% expect a decline, and 27% predict stability.
When asked about investing in Ukraine, 35% plan to increase investments in 2025, while 48% plan to maintain the current level of investments. Primary sources of investments for respondents were the EU (81%), followed by the US (71%), and Asia (18%).
"Ukraine's recovery momentum is positioning the country as a hub of opportunity for forward-thinking investors," President of AmCham Ukraine Andy Hunder.
Ukraine and France discuss joint production of air defense systems and interceptors
Ukraine's Deputy Defense Minister Serhiy Boev met with the special envoy of the president of France for assistance and reconstruction of Ukraine, Pierre Heilbronn, to discuss plans for industrial cooperation in the defense industry.
Boev highlighted the defense sector priorities for 2025 — including air defense systems and interceptors — and ways for France to finance them, according to a government press release.
"Ukrainian production needs additional funding to fully utilize their capacities," Boev said. "We produce shells, artillery systems, and long-range drones."
"But air defense remains an important need - we are ready to discuss options for joint production of air defense systems and interceptors for them," Boev added, noting that France is the leader in producing air and missile defense systems.
In December, the government of Denmark announced the acceleration of the delivery of French-made CAESAR artillery pieces to Ukraine. The delivery of artillery pieces was originally planned in 2026 but was pushed to 2025.
NYT: Ukraine's sovereignty depends on strong support from Trump admin
Ukraine's sovereignty and security hinge on strong backing from the administration of US President Donald Trump, emphasizing continued NATO support and resistance to Vladimir Putin's aggression, Leon Panetta, former CIA director, wrote in an op-ed for the New York Times.
A negotiated settlement could secure Ukraine's independence while ending the war, demonstrating the effectiveness of Trump's "peace through strength" approach as a guiding principle for resolving global conflicts, Panetta wrote.
The Hill: Ukraine should be held accountable for corruption in foreign aid spending
Ukraine's war effort has been marred by allegations of corruption and mismanagement, with critics accusing President Volodymyr Zelensky's administration of silencing military leaders and misusing Western aid, James Durso, foreign policy commentator for The Hill, wrote in an op-ed, noting that these allegations should be addressed.
Despite warnings from Ukrainian generals about the futility of attritional warfare and the need for diplomacy, billions in US and European taxpayer dollars were allegedly squandered on overpriced, faulty equipment, further compounding Ukraine's struggles on the battlefield, Durso pointed out.
EDASI: Russia must be defeated in Ukraine for World War III to be avoided
The survival of Ukraine, Europe, and the democratic world hinges on decisively supporting Ukraine's victory over Russian aggression, as appeasing authoritarian regimes like Russia has historically led to greater conflicts, with the current war leading us to World War III if Russia is not defeated, Marko Mihkelson, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Estonian parliament, wrote in an op-ed for the EDASI magazine.
Western nations must abandon the "Munich spirit" of compromise, recognizing that only through robust defense and unified action can they counter the growing alliance of authoritarian states and prevent a larger catastrophe, according to Mihkelson.
Scrapping coal in Ukraine by 2035 would boost system costs by 'politically acceptable' 12.5%, study finds
The least expensive route for Ukraine to meet energy demand by 2035, starting from a severely war-damaged base, would be to continue using some coal facilities while relying heavily on nuclear power, according to a study out of the University of Geneva.
Eliminating coal use entirely and increasing the share of renewables would boost system costs by between 4.8% and 12.5% above the least expensive route, which still "could be socially and politically acceptable," according to the study.
At the same time, eliminating coal would create 47,000 jobs in the energy sector, or 25.3% more jobs than the least expensive route for development of the country's energy sector, the study showed
The findings from the university's Institute for Environmental Sciences stem from a scenario analysis of four potential pathways for decarbonizing Ukraine’s electricity sector by 2035.
The researchers used UKRAINE-EXPANSE, a high-resolution framework designed to assess electricity systems at regional and national levels, to judge the impacts of various pathways the country could take in the reconstruction of its severely damaged energy sector.
According to the study, undamaged electricity capacity in Ukraine needs to roughly triple by 2035 to meet a projected 16.3% increase in demand compared to the pre-war period. Despite this growth, total installed capacity would fall from pre-war levels due to structural rationalization.
The study covered 24 Ukrainian oblasts and five neighboring countries, analyzing electricity demand, generation, storage, transmission, and sustainability impacts. Data sources included official Ukrainian statistics and international energy databases.
Four scenarios were modeled: MinCost, which minimizes total system costs; COAL0, excluding hard coal generation; RES30%, requiring 30% renewable energy in the electricity mix; and COAL0+RES30%, combining the previous constraints.
The research also accounted for infrastructure damage from the ongoing conflict and used assumptions for the current capacities based on various damage assessments.
The COAL0 and RES30% scenarios highlighted higher land use and system costs, with RES30% requiring 12.5% more than the MinCost scenario. These constraints also demonstrated enhanced employment opportunities, with COAL0 creating a 25.3% increase in jobs compared to the baseline.
Sustainability analysis showed that all scenarios met Ukraine’s commitment to a 70% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris Agreement, with emissions falling below the 29.7 Mt CO2/year threshold. The scenarios also highlighted the need for expanded transmission infrastructure to support decentralized and renewable energy growth.
With a focus on cost-effective and renewable energy strategies, the study could serve as a roadmap for Ukraine’s energy transition, supporting national and regional policy development.
Social Media Posts
How to Trade Natural Gas
Maksym Maksymenko, head of real estate and infrastructure at Ukrainian law firm Avellum, published a social media post on the "mechanics of participating in commodities trading in Ukraine, including natural gas."
The post, the continuation of a series of posts on the topic, outlines membership in a commodities exchange, and appointing a broker, then describes how auctions are carried out.
Curated Theft
The Kyiv Independent announced the release, scheduled for Jan 23, of the film "Curated Theft" about the massive theft of valuables from Ukrainian museums by Russian forces. It will be viewable in English on hte Kyiv Independent YouTube channel.
"In the fall of 2022, before withdrawing from the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, Russian forces looted two local museums — the Kherson Art Museum and the Kherson Museum of Local History. They stole valuable works of art and archaeological artifacts, including gold from the Scythians, Goths, and Sarmatians."
Energy Law
Nataliia Khmelovska, a lawyer specialized in energy at Ukrainian law firm Sayenko Kharenko, promoted an article she wrote for the legal publication Pravo.ua analyzing key court decisions in 2024 in Ukraine's energy sector.
Entrepreneurs Networking in Mykolaiv
Oleksandr Syenkevych, mayor of the Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv, signed a memorandum of understanding with USAID for a project aimed at creating a "special space for entrepreneurial networking."
"This project is aimed at local entrepreneurs affected by the war and seeking to resume, expand or improve their businesses. In addition, residents interested in creating new businesses are a priority."
The DREAM: School Canteens
The Ukrainian government will use DREAM - Digital Restoration EcoSystem for Accountable Management, the system that collects and communicates open data across all reconstruction projects, to distribute UAH 960 million ($22.8 million) to build and modernize school canteens in Ukraine, DREAM announced on social media.
URN Daily: Sense Bank and Ukrgasbank for sale? And US seeks to cancel $4.7 billion of Ukraine's debt
