Peace in Ukraine may be closer than most people suspect, says Timothy Ash.
The associate fellow at Chatham House and senior sovereign strategist at RBC Bluebay Asset Management laid out five reasons for his belief in his latest blog post.
Here is a much-abridged summary by Ukraine Rebuild Newswire:
1 - Ukraine just made serious concessions in negotiations with bondholders, which raises the prospect of a debt restructuring by September. This could indicate Ukraine expects to access markets soon to help with reconstruction.
2 - Hungarian Prime Minister's Viktor Orban's recent flurry of trips to Kyiv, Moscow, Beijing and then to meet former US President Donald Trump in Florida at Mar-a-Lago could indicate behind-the-scenes peace talks.
3 - Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's recent visit to Mar-a-Lago, followed by his own peace suggestion could further prepare the stage for peace talks.
4 - Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba visited China, followed by a joint Ukraine - China communique that seems to bring Ukraine into China's one belt one road plan and Kuleba mentioning the need for “serious” peace talks with Russia.
5 - Recent polls suggest that opinion is changing in Ukraine towards making concessions.
Read the whole post for the subtleties.
